Economy yaku America
Misika yapadziko lonse lapansi yamphamvu komanso mabwalo azachuma ku Washington sakuwonanso kusamvana ku Middle East ngati chochitika chandale, koma ngati kugwedezeka komwe kumayambitsa mavuto azachuma omwe ambiri amaganiza kuti adayiwalika m’ma 1970. Ngakhale nkhawa ya chaka chatha idangoyang’ana pa “nkhondo zamalonda” komanso mitengo yamitengo yogwirizana, nkhondo yaku Iran idakhazikitsa chowonadi chatsopano chomwe chimapitilira misonkho kuti chiwongolere zida zofunikira.
Mkhalidwe wachiyembekezo umene ukupambana Wall Street Masiku ano zimachokera ku mfundo yakuti lakuthwa ndi kupitiriza kukwera mitengo MafutaKugwirizana ndi kufooka kwa msika wogwira ntchito, Federal Reserve ikukumana ndi vuto lalikulu pakati pa kuchepetsa kukwera kwa mitengo ndikuthandizira kukula. Nkhani yovutayi ikutikumbutsa mawu akuti “Stagflation“Zomwe zimaphatikiza zovuta ziwiri zazachuma: kukwera kwamitengo ndi kugwa kwachuma.
Poyang’anizana ndi zovuta izi, mafunso ofunikira kwambiri amawuka: Chifukwa chiyani zotsatira za nkhondo ya Iran zikubweretsanso chidwi cha misika yaku America? Pakati pa tariff ndi mafuta … kodi chuma cha ku America chikukumana ndi vuto la stagflation?
Akatswiri azachuma amakhulupirira, m’mawu okhawo ku tsamba la “Eqtisad Sky News Arabia”, kuti nkhondo yomwe ilipo tsopano ikuyimira “kugwedezeka kwachiwiri” komwe kumakulitsa kusatsimikizika kwachuma ndikuyika chuma cha America chikuyang’anizana ndi “zovuta kwambiri” za stagflation, monga katswiri wazachuma Dr. Abdullah El-Shenawy akukhulupirira kuti Federal Reserve imachepetsa mphamvu ya Repercussion Repercussion. chifukwa choopa kukwera kwa mitengo, zomwe zikuwopseza kuwononga moyo komanso kuwononga msika wantchito kwambiri.
Katswiri wazachuma Dr. Imad Al-Din Al-Musabeh akugwirizana naye, akugogomezera kuti chochitikacho chikuyimira “kugwedezeka kawiri” chifukwa cha kukwera mtengo kwa inflation osati kukwera mtengo, zomwe zikuyimira chiyambi cha stagflation, ndikuwonetsa kuti United States ikupita ku njira yomwe imatsitsimutsanso zovuta za mbiri yakalezi chifukwa cha kuwonongeka kwa msika ndi kuwonongeka kwa msika. kuchepa kwamphamvu kwa ndalama.
Kodi stagflation ndi chiyani?
Stagflation imachitika pamene kuchepa kwa kukula kumaphatikizana ndi kukwera kwa mitengo Ulova Ndipo anafulumizitsa Kukwera kwa mitengo. Wandale wa ku Britain, Ian MacLeod, adayambitsa mawuwa mu 1965, kuphatikiza mawu akuti “kutsika kwachuma” ndi “kukwera mitengo.” Akatswiri azachuma ambiri m’mbuyomu ankakayikira kuti zidzachitika, chifukwa kuchepa kwachangu nthawi zambiri kumachepetsa kuthekera kwamakampani kukweza mitengo yazinthu ndi ntchito, ndikuyika mtengo pa iwo. Komabe, zitha kuchitika ngati chuma chikukumana ndi zovuta zatsopano zokwera mitengo – monga mitengo yamitengo kapena kugwedezeka kwamafuta – zomwe sizimayambitsidwa ndi kuchuluka kwakufunika.
Pakati pa kugwedezeka kwa zaka makumi asanu ndi awiri ndi zochitika zenizeni
ndiMalinga ndi lipoti lofalitsidwa ndi Bloomberg ndi Sky News Arabia, mikangano yomwe ilipo tsopano yasinthanso mapu owopsa m’misika yaku America, chifukwa nkhawa sikulinso yokhudzana ndi mfundo zoteteza kapena ntchito zamasitomala monga momwe zinalili chaka chatha, koma cholinga chake changoyang’ana kwambiri kuthekera kophatikiza kukwera kwakukulu kwamitengo. Mafuta Zotsatira za nkhondo.
Lipotilo lidafotokoza kuti nthawi yotalikirapo yokwera mtengo wamagetsi imawopseza kuti chuma chigwere pansi, zomwe zikugwirizana ndi kukwera kwamitengo kwamitengo.
Iye ananena kuti mbiri ya zachuma imagwirizanitsa chodabwitsa ichi ndi kuphatikiza kwa “zodabwitsa zakunja” ndi zolakwika za ndondomeko, kutchula zomwe zinachitika m’ma 1970 pamene kuchotsedwa kwa golidi ndi kuletsedwa kwa mafuta mu 1973 kunayambitsa kulumpha mu American “miry index,” yomwe inafika pachimake pa 22 peresenti mu 1980.
Ponena za kutukuka kwa zoopsa zomwe zikuchitika, lipotilo lidawonetsa kuti kusokonekera kwa magalimoto oyendetsa sitima ku Strait of Hormuz komanso kufooka kwa msika wantchito waku America kumayimira malo achonde kuti akule bwino. Lipotilo linagwira mawu a Sal Guatieri, katswiri wa zachuma ku BMO Capital Markets, ponena kuti nkhondo ya Iran idzakweza kukwera kwa mitengo ndi kufooketsa chidaliro cha osunga ndalama, ngakhale adatsutsa kuti ulova ufika pakatikati pa zaka za m’ma 1970 pamene adafika pa 9 peresenti ndipo kukwera kwa mitengo kunakwera pamwamba pa 10 peresenti.
Lipotilo lidawonetsanso zovuta zomwe opanga malamulo azandalama akukumana nazo, pomwe adatchulapo mawu a Austin Goolsbee, Purezidenti wa Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, pomwe adachenjeza kuti zosokoneza zokhudzana ndi mafuta zimatha kupititsa patsogolo chuma kuti chiziyenda bwino.
Kupanikizika kopereka ndi kuyesa mtengo wamafuta
Polankhula ndi tsamba la “Eqtisad Sky News Arabia”, katswiri wazachuma Dr. Imad Al-Din Al-Musabeh, pulofesa wa zachuma ku makoleji a Arab East, adati: “Mantha obwera chifukwa cha kuchepa kwachuma adawonekeranso pazachuma cha America atakumana ndi kugwedezeka kawiri, koyimiridwa ndi kupsinjika kwamitengo komwe kumabwera chifukwa cha kukwera kwamitengo yamagetsi, kugwirizana ndi ntchito yachuma komanso kuchepa kwachuma. ” ntchito. Munthawi imeneyi, kukwera kwamitengo sichifukwa cha kuchuluka kwa kufunikira (kukokera-koka), koma chifukwa cha kukwera kwa mitengo, komwe “kugwedezeka kwa zinthu” kumakulitsa mtengo wa zopangira ndi zoyendera, zomwe zimafooketsa mphamvu zogulira ndi ndalama zogulira, zomwe zikuyimira chiyambi chazovuta zakukula kwachuma.
Anawonjezera kuti: “Mliriwu usanachitike Iran nkhondoDeta yaku America idawonetsa kuti nkhondo yoletsa kukwera kwa inflation siyinaganizidwebe, popeza mitengo ya ogula mu February 2026 idawonetsa kukula kwa 2.4% pachaka, pomwe kukwera kwamitengo kumakhazikika pa 2.5 peresenti, kupitilira 2 peresenti ya Federal Reserve. Izi zikugwirizana ndi zizindikiro zosonyeza kuchepa kwa msika wa ntchito, pamene chiwerengero cha kusowa kwa ntchito chinakwera kufika pa 4.4 peresenti, ndikuwonjezera chiwerengero cha anthu omwe alibe ntchito kwa anthu 7.57 miliyoni.
Dr. Al-Musabah adanena kuti nkhondo ndi chisokonezo chotsatira misika yamagetsi chinakulitsa vutoli, ndikulengeza kuti mitengo ya mafuta ndi mafuta ikuwonjezeka kwambiri. Kuyerekeza kwa msika kukuwonetsa kuti mafuta amafuta a Brent akugulitsidwa kuposa $100 pa chotchinga chilichonse, ndikuthekera kwake kukhudza mulingo wa $ 120 ngati zoperekedwa kudzera mu Strait of Hormuz zikupitilizabe kusokonezedwa. Izi zidawonetsedwa kwanuko ndi kukwera kwamitengo yamafuta m’makontrakitala amtsogolo aku US kufika pafupifupi $3.09 pa galoni pofika pa Marichi 17, zomwe zikuwonetsa kuwonjezeka kwa mwezi ndi 57 peresenti.
Mavuto azachuma komanso zovuta zandalama
Chuma cha ku America sichinakumane ndi vutoli podzipatula ku malo azachuma omwe poyamba anali kuvutika chifukwa cha kutsika kwa mitengo yamtengo wapatali chifukwa cha ndondomeko zamalonda ndi mitengo yamtengo wapatali, malinga ndi Dr. Al-Musabeh, yemwe anatsindika kuti vutoli silikukhudzidwa ndi zotsatira za mafuta okha, koma m’malo mwake ndi kukwera kwa inflation, komwe kumawopseza kusintha kugwa kwachuma kukhala kovuta kwambiri.
Iye anafotokoza kuti ngati mitengo bata Mphamvu Pazigawo zazikuluzikuluzi, makampani adzapereka kuwonjezeka kwa ndalama kwa ogula omaliza, zomwe zimabweretsa kuwonongeka kwa ndalama zenizeni za mabanja ndi kuchepa kwa ndalama zomwe amagwiritsira ntchito pazinthu zina, motero amaika mavuto pa kukula ndi kutsika kwa mitengo panthawi yomweyo.
Katswiri wazachuma Al-Musabah adawona kuti izi zimabweretsa vuto lalikulu pazandalama, ndipo adati: “Opanga zisankho mu Reserve Council. Federal Iwo akukumana ndi vuto la kusinthanitsa. Ngati chiwongola dzanja chatsitsidwa kuti chilimbikitse kukula ndi ntchito, chiwopsezo cha kukwera kwa inflation chidzawonjezeka, ndipo ngati ndondomeko yandalama isungidwa kuti ichepetse mitengo, zitsenderezo zidzakwera pachuma chomwe chayamba kale kufooka. Chifukwa chake, ziyembekezo zamakono zikuwonetsa chizolowezi cha Fed chosunga … Chidwi Pakati pa 3.50 peresenti kufika pa 3.75 peresenti, mukuyenda komwe kumasonyeza kusamala kwambiri pankhani yovutayi.
Kutengera zomwe tafotokozazi, Dr. Al-Musabeh akumaliza kuti “chuma cha ku America, ngakhale sichinalowe m’gawo lalikulu la stagflationary, chikulowera kunjira yomwe imatsitsimutsanso zochitika zowopsa izi. Kukwera kwamitengo yamagetsi panthawi yomwe imadziwika ndi kukwera kwamitengo yolimba komanso kusowa kwa ntchito kumapangitsa kuti United States ikhale pachiwopsezo chazovuta kwambiri komanso kukula kwachuma nthawi yomweyo. “
Chisokonezo m’misika yazachuma komanso zowopsa pakukhazikika kwachuma
Kwa iye, katswiri wa zachuma, Dr. Abdullah El-Shenawy, pulofesa wa zachuma ku yunivesite ya Zagazig, adanena poyankhulana ndi webusaiti ya “Iqtisad Sky News Arabia”: “Nkhondo ya Iran yakulitsa mkhalidwe wa kusatsimikizika,” akugogomezera kuti palibe kuthawa ku zotsatira zake mwachindunji pazitsulo zazikulu zachuma kupyolera mu njira zamalonda ndi msika wa mphamvu ndi ndalama.
El-Shenawy adalongosola kuti chuma cha ku America pakali pano chikukumana ndi “chiwopsezo chachiwiri” chofanana ndi kutsika kwachuma mkati mwa chaka chimodzi, pamene nkhondoyo imatsegula njira yokweza mitengo ya inflation ndi zokolola za bond, kusokoneza maunyolo, ndi kusokoneza chidaliro cha osunga ndalama ndi makampani.
Dr. El-Shenawy adanenanso kuti stagflation imayimira “chinthu choipitsitsa kwambiri” komanso vuto lovuta kwambiri kwa olemba ndondomeko, chifukwa Federal Reserve imatha kulowererapo mwa kuchepetsa chiwongoladzanja chidzalepheretsedwa ndi kuopa kuwonjezereka kwa inflation. Adanenanso zachilendo m’misika yazachuma, kukwera kwa zokolola za Treasury zaka 10 kufika pa 4.25 peresenti, zomwe zikuwonetsa kuthetsedwa kwa … Investors za mgwirizano wa boma m’malo mowadalira ngati malo otetezeka, ndikugogomezera kuti kuwonjezeka kwa chiwongoladzanja cha nthawi yaitali kumapangitsa kuti chiwongoladzanja chikhale chopinga chachikulu, makamaka kuyambira pamene United States inalowa mu nkhondo pamene akuvutika ndi “zosakhazikika” zachuma.
El-Shenawy anachenjeza kuti kukwera kwa chiwongoladzanja kwa nthawi yayitali kudzawonjezera ndalama Ngongole zanyumba Ndi ngongole MagalimotoIkhoza kukhala “chiwopsezo” chomwe chimayatsa kuwongolera kwakukulu pamsika wamasheya, kuyika chitsenderezo pazachuma pambuyo pazaka zambiri zobwereketsa mosasamala. Ananenanso kuti ngati nkhondoyo ipitilira, chiwongola dzanja sichingagwe, ndipo mabanki apakati angakakamizidwe kukweza, pomwe zidayembekezereka nkhondo isanachitike kuti Federal Reserve ingachepetse.
Anagogomezeranso kuti kukwera mtengo kwa mphamvu kwakhala cholepheretsa kukula kwa ndalama mu nzeru zopangapanga, zomwe zinathandiza pafupifupi theka la kukula kwachuma kwaposachedwa, chifukwa cha mphamvu ya mphamvu ya gawoli. Iye anachenjeza kuti mitengo ya mafuta yomwe ikufika pa $ 125 pa mbiya ingathe kuchepetsa ndalama zonse zapakhomo ku US ndi 0.8 peresenti, makamaka pamene msika wogwira ntchito utaya ntchito pafupifupi 92,000 nkhondo isanayambike, komanso chiwerengero cha kusowa kwa ntchito kufika pa 4.4 peresenti.
Zochitika zamavuto: Kukonda njira yocheperako komanso kuwonongeka koipitsitsa
M’masomphenya ake a tsogolo lavutoli, Dr. El-Shenawy adawunikiranso zochitika zitatu zomwe zingakhudze nkhondo pamisika yaku America ndi padziko lonse lapansi:
- Zochitika zabwino: Zikuyimira kutha msanga kwa ntchito zankhondo komanso kubwezeretsa mphamvu zamagetsi m’malo abwinobwino. Izi ndi zomwe El-Shenawy akukhulupirira kuti zili ndi mwayi “wochepa” woti zitha kuchitika chifukwa cha kukwera komwe kulipo.
- Zochita zolimbitsa thupi: Asitikali akuyembekezeka kupitilirabe ndipo mitengo yamafuta ikhalabe yokwera chifukwa cha kusatsimikizika kwakupezeka komanso kusamvana. El-Shenawy anagogomezera kuti kusokonezeka kwazinthu kwanthawi yayitali, kumabweretsa kuwonongeka kwakukulu kwachuma, komwe kumapangitsa kuti chuma chikhale cholimba ndikulepheretsa kubwerera kwa utsogoleri m’misika yapadziko lonse lapansi momwe zidaliri nkhondo isanayambe.
- Choyipa choyipa: Ndizowopsa kwambiri pamabizinesi azachuma, chifukwa kukangana kwanthawi yayitali kumabweretsa kusowa kwakukulu kwa mphamvu ndi zinthu zofunikira komanso kuwonongeka kwachangu kwachuma, zomwe zimabweretsa kuopsa kwa stagflation kumagulu omwe ndi ovuta kuthana nawo, ndikuwonjezera kuthekera kwa kugwa kwakuya kwambiri m’misika yapadziko lonse lapansi.
Katswiri wazachuma El-Shenawy adamaliza ndi kunena kuti kuchuluka kwa kuwonongeka komaliza kudzadalira nthawi yotseka Strait of Hormuz, pomwe pafupifupi 20 peresenti yamafuta, gasi, ndi feteleza padziko lonse lapansi amadutsa. Anagogomezera kuti tsiku lililonse lomwe limadutsa mkanganowu limakweza ndalama zomwe wokhometsa misonkho waku America, akuyerekeza pafupifupi $ 900 miliyoni patsiku, zomwe zimawononga ndalama zomwe zimaperekedwa kumakampani opanga njira monga ma semiconductors.
