With a month to play in the NFL season, two things are certain.
The Titans, Giants, Raiders, Saints and Cardinals have already been eliminated from making the playoffs, with the loser of Sunday’s Commanders-Vikings game joining them.
And the rest of the league is headed toward postseason chaos.
In the NFC, 10 teams have a winning record entering Week 14 for only the third time (after 2014 and 1979) since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger, according to NBC Sports research. How widespread is that parity? The Lions, the conference’s top seed just last year, are currently on the outside looking in on the playoffs.
In the AFC, the once mighty could fall. The Chiefs, perennial Super Bowl contenders, are perilously close to seeing their decadelong playoff streak snapped. Meanwhile, the once lowly could rise. Houston has a chance to become only the seventh team in NFL history — and only the second in the past quarter century — to make the postseason after starting 0-3.
Of the eight divisions in the NFL, five are currently separated by one or fewer games, the first time that’s been the case this deep into the season since 2019, per NBC Sports research.
Who leads which division could change in three of them just this weekend.
Baltimore (6-6) will host Pittsburgh (6-6) and the winner will take over first place in the AFC North. They play again in the Week 18 regular-season finale. Few thought the Ravens would be in this position. At the season’s start, Baltimore looked like it could again be among the league’s best. A few weeks later, as quarterback Lamar Jackson was injured and the team fell to 1-5, Baltimore’s season looked like it might be unsalvageable. Yet Pittsburgh’s inability to build off its 4-1 start has allowed the Ravens an opportunity to become only the fifth team ever to begin 1-5 and make the playoffs.
Though the Ravens have won five of their last six games, Jackson hasn’t looked like his old self, completing just 56% of his passes since Week 10 and failing to throw a touchdown pass in his last three games, the longest streak of his career as a starter.
Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers, meanwhile, has an even lower completion percentage (52%) since Week 10 and is playing despite multiple fractures in his left wrist.
In the AFC South, whoever wins Sunday’s game between Indianapolis (8-4) and Jacksonville (8-4) will take over first place. These teams will meet again in Week 17.
The Colts were the NFL’s darling while starting 7-1, but their rocky record since has put them in danger of becoming only the sixth team since 1970 to start 7-1 or better and still miss the playoffs. (The last to pull off that ignominious accomplishment were the 2012 Bears.) Gulp: The Colts have lost 10 straight road games to Jacksonville.
In Green Bay, the Packers (8-3-1) will host the Bears (9-3), with the NFC North division lead up for grabs. The matchup offers contrasting streaks and styles. Chicago‘s 26 takeaways are the most in the league, while Green Bay’s seven are the fewest. The Bears have won nine of their last 10 games this season, but Green Bay has won 11 of its last 12 against Chicago.
Logic would suggest that this game could go a long way toward shaping the playoff field. Yet if this topsy-turvy season, where no dominant team has emerged, has revealed anything, it’s that when the Packers and Bears meet again in just two weeks, the playoff picture could be just as murky as it is now.
What else we’re watching for in Week 14
Steelers (6-6) at Ravens (6-6): Baltimore’s John Harbaugh and Pittsburgh’s Mike Tomlin are facing each other for the 39th time, which trails only George Halas and Curly Lambeau (49 meetings) for the most by two head coaches in history.
Colts (8-4) at Jaguars (8-4): In his last two games, both losses, Colts quarterback and onetime MVP candidate Daniel Jones has completed a combined 4-for-14 passes for 41 yards.
Bengals (4-8) at Bills (8-4): Ja’Marr Chase has 971 receiving yards, and with 29 more, he’ll join Justin Jefferson, Mike Evans, A.J. Green and Randy Moss among the only players in NFL history with 1,000-plus receiving yards in each of their first five seasons.
Seahawks (9-3) at Falcons (4-8): A loss will eliminate Atlanta from making the playoffs. Seattle’s three losses have come by a combined nine points.
Titans (1-11) at Browns (3-9): Browns end Myles Garrett (19 sacks) is four sacks away from breaking the single-season sack record of 22.5 co-owned by Michael Strahan and T.J. Watt.
Commanders (3-9) at Vikings (4-8): Minnesota last week was shut out for the first time since 2007. It is averaging only 10.5 points in its four-game losing streak, and its last touchdown came in Week 11.
Dolphins (5-7) at Jets (3-9): With a loss, the Jets will miss the playoffs for the 15th consecutive season, which will become the longest active playoff drought not only among NFL teams, but also in the NBA, NHL, MLB and WNBA.
Saints (2-10) at Buccaneers (7-5): Tampa has made the playoffs five consecutive seasons, the longest active streak in the NFC. When Tampa beat New Orleans in Week 8, it was Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield’s only game this season without a touchdown pass.
Broncos (10-2) at Raiders (2-10): If Denver wins, Kansas City must win the rest of its games to preserve even a small chance of winning the AFC West.
Bears (9-3) at Packers (8-3-1): Green Bay is 3-0 in the NFC North. Chicago has the lowest completion percentage among qualified passers (58%), but coach Ben Johnson says of quarterback Caleb Williams: “Throw those [stats] out the window. He’s doing a really good job.”
Rams (9-3) at Cardinals (3-9): One bright spot for Arizona is that tight end Trey McBride’s 88 catches are the most in the league. Rams star receiver Puka Nacua enters with 86.
Texans (7-5) at Chiefs (6-6): Kansas City is 5-1 at home. Houston’s defense allows the fewest yards (265) and points (16.5) per game.
Eagles (8-4) at Chargers (8-4) on Monday: With 21 touchdown passes this season, Justin Herbert joins Russell Wilson, Peyton Manning and Dan Marino among the only quarterbacks with 20-plus touchdown passes in each of their first six seasons.