President Donald Trump has spoken before Congress plenty of times. But when he delivers his State of the Union speech Tuesday, he’ll be standing on unfamiliar political ground: Americans watching the speech distrust him on the economy.
An AP-NORC poll this month found that just 39% approve of Trump’s handling of the economy, while 59% disapprove. It’s the latest measurement, but it’s no outlier, with other surveys showing Trump’s economic approval rating underwater.
Over the last year, Trump has seen his ratings on the issue sink. That’s a marked contrast from his first term, when he largely broke even or enjoyed broad approval on the economy, even in the Covid-19 downturn, according to the same AP-NORC poll.
The public perception that Trump was good for the economy had been a vital political asset. Dating to his first campaign, Trump’s business experience and claims of understanding the economy appealed to some voters who disapproved of him over other matters.
In 2016, Trump narrowly edged out Hillary Clinton on who would better handle the economy, according to exit polls, a key component of his upset victory. In 2020, Trump broke even with challenger Joe Biden on the economy and, even though he lost, handily won voters who ranked it as their top issue.
And in 2024, Trump dominated among voters concerned about the economy, exit polling showed, helping him sweep all seven swing states and win back the White House.
But since his return to the White House, voters have soured on Trump on the economy amid persisting dissatisfaction with high costs, surveys show, a turnaround that has empowered Democrats and raised alarm bells among Republicans ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
“People are angry about what they’re seeing from this administration. Families are struggling, and Republicans don’t care,” Rep. Suzan DelBene, D-Wash., the chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said last week on NBC News’ “Meet the Press Now.” “They promised to lower costs on Day 1. It’s been a big broken promise.”
Trump has dismissed polls that show him diminished on the economy as “fake” and touted the stock market to argue things are going well. A key question for his State of the Union address is whether he will use the moment to press on with his strategy or change course in his economic message.
Republicans say their message for the midterms will be that they were dealt a bad hand on the economy and that things are improving as a result of their actions in the red trifecta.
“After inheriting Joe Biden’s economically disastrous spending spree, President Trump and Republicans are delivering real relief for the American people,” National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman Mike Marinella said in statement, touting provisions of Trump’s “big, beautiful bill,” such as tax breaks on tips and overtime pay, along with a deduction for seniors. “The contrast is clear: Republicans are delivering relief where it counts while Democrats want to get back to their status quo of failures.”
How people process tax season is key. Some Republican strategists privately worry that voter concern about the economy isn’t a problem they can fix with better messaging — and that voters must feel an improvement in their pocketbooks to turn GOP political fortunes around before the fall elections.
NBC News polling in October found that just 34% of registered voters said Trump had “lived up” to their expectations on the economy, while 63% said he had “fallen short.” Responses were similar when they were asked how Trump had performed on helping the middle class and dealing with the cost of living.
A Fox News poll last month found that Trump began 2026 with a 40% approval rating on the economy, with 59% of registered voters disapproving. And 68% of voters said Trump wasn’t spending enough time on the economy.
Trump promised a “golden age” of American economic revival in his second term and maintains that he’s delivering. He has touted “the Greatest Economy in the History of our Country” and sought to discredit the polls showing most Americans disagree with him.
“Fake Polls on the Economy, on the Border, on just about everything, are ridiculous and dangerous. The REAL Polls have been GREAT, but they refuse to print them,” Trump wrote on Truth Social last month.
Last week, as he emphatically defended his tariffs, he told reporters, “Our stock market has just recently broken 50,000 on the Dow and simultaneously and even more amazingly broken 7,000 on the S&P.”
A ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll out Sunday found Trump in net negative territory on handling the economy (41% approving, 57% disapproving), handling tariffs (34%-64%) and handling inflation (32%-65%).
One political bright spot for congressional Republicans: Their Democratic counterparts don’t have an advantage on the cost of living, according to the survey. It found that 32% of U.S. adults trust Trump to handle it, while 31% trust Democrats in Congress. And 33% said they trust neither.
While the polling presents a political challenge for his party, it has limited impact on Trump’s near-term power this year, which he draws from his administration’s expansive views of executive power and his still-high overall approval among GOP voters. Trump’s allies control the House and the Senate, relegating Democrats in the minority to limited avenues to challenge him. And Trump maintains a tight grip on the Republican majorities, wielding his power by threatening to oust lawmakers who defy him in party primaries.
The Supreme Court is the most conservative it has been in nearly a century, proving largely deferential to Trump on executive authority. But there are exceptions: It delivered a striking rebuke to him last week by invalidating most of his tariffs on a vote of 6-3, with three GOP appointees ruling against him. Trump torched the decision, and he has since pivoted to citing a different authority to levy tariffs, which has a 150-day limit under the law. So Congress will again be required to weigh in.
Still, the tariffs — taxes paid by importers on products coming into the U.S. — have left some Democrats salivating at the political prospect of Republicans’ voting to sustain them in the final stretch to the midterm elections.
“Trump is forcing House Republicans to campaign on tax hiking tariffs the rest of the year, despite all evidence that it’s awful politics and everyone hates them,” DCCC spokesperson Viet Shelton said. “Good luck with that!”
