WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump lost out on the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize, yet in a rare confluence of geopolitics and chance, he could wind up with the 18-karat gold medal nonetheless.
María Corina Machado, who did win the prize, is set to visit the White House on Thursday amid speculation that she may offer Trump her award in appreciation for the U.S. military raid that deposed Venezuela’s repressive leader, Nicolás Maduro.
Machado is the Venezuelan opposition figure whom the Nobel selection committee chose last year for an award that has become a Trump fixation. She was honored for promoting democratic rights in the country, a stance that had compelled her to go into hiding.
After the U.S. strike on Jan. 3, Machado said she should become Venezuela’s new leader, given the support her coalition received in the country’s 2024 elections.
For now, though, the Trump administration has kept her sidelined. Trump is relying, instead, on remnants of Maduro’s regime to lead the country day to day, backing Maduro’s vice president, Delcy Rodríguez, for the country’s top job. In the hours after the raid, Trump called Machado a “very nice woman” but said she lacked “respect” within the country.
Since then, Trump hasn’t changed his view of Machado’s limitations, a senior White House official said in an interview Wednesday. Venezuela’s interim leadership has willingly complied with the Trump administration’s demands and met its expectations, the person added.
Trump told reporters Wednesday that he’d spoken to Rodríguez, the interim president, and found her to be a “terrific person.”
White House officials described Machado’s visit as something she had sought and, as a courtesy, Trump granted.
A certain convergence of interests underpins the coming meeting. Each has something the other wants.
Machado hopes to head a Venezuelan government whose leaders are decided through the ballot box. For that, she needs Trump to usher in a democratic transition.
And Trump wants recognition for his peacemaking efforts. He says he deserves not one but multiple Nobel prizes for the various wars he says he has ended through his intervention.
“President Trump deserves the Nobel Peace Prize many times over,” White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said in a prepared statement. “His direct involvement in major conflicts — leveraging tools from America’s military might to our superior consumer market — has brought peace to decades-long wars around the world. However, as the President has said, he doesn’t care about the recognition — only saving lives.”
Looming over the meeting is what Machado intends to do with the prize. The Norwegian Nobel Institute said in a statement last week that the winner was Machado and that that unalterable reality “stands for all time.” The prize can’t be shared or transferred, the institute said.
Yet there doesn’t appear to be anything stopping Machado from giving Trump her Nobel hardware if that’s what she chooses. After she won the award, she dedicated it to Trump, crediting his support for her democratic movement.
In an interview last week, Fox News’ Sean Hannity asked her whether she had offered her prize to Trump.
“It hasn’t happened yet,” she said, adding that the peace prize truly belonged to the Venezuelan people, “who certainly want to give it to him and share it with him.”
A communications adviser to Machado told NBC News “no comment” when asked whether she plans to give Trump her award during Thursday’s visit.
If Machado does offer it, would Trump accept? He has already taken a luxury jet from Qatar that he intends to use as a replacement for the Boeing 747 known as Air Force One.
“If she wants to gift him something, he’s not one to refuse a gift,” a second senior White House official said in an interview Wednesday.
Robert O’Brien, who was White House national security adviser during Trump’s first term, said: “I think it would be brilliant on her part to do it. It would certainly be a real sign of good faith, thanks and gratitude for him getting rid of Maduro and giving her and the opposition a shot. Trump took a big risk in doing that.”
“The Nobel Peace Prize Committee came out and said she can’t do it, but she can do whatever she wants,” O’Brien continued. “Are they going to take the money away?” (The peace prize winner receives about $1.2 million, in addition to the gold medal and a certificate.)
A number of world leaders and American lawmakers have formally nominated Trump for the 2026 prize. A five-person committee appointed by Norway’s parliament will sift through the candidates and announce its decision in October.
As Trump has no Nobel to his name, his unhappiness seems to be growing more pronounced. He said this month that it’s an “embarrassment” to Norway that he hasn’t won the award.
Such complaints aren’t likely to sweeten his chances, said Marc Nathanson, who was ambassador to Norway during the Biden administration.
“The Norwegians are extremely honest and transparent,” he said in an interview. “If you go to a restaurant — even if you’re an ambassador — you have to wait your turn. It’s that type of society.”
Kåre Aas, Norway’s ambassador to the U.S. from 2013 to 2020, said that, if anything, Trump’s chances of pocketing the award this year have dimmed. He mentioned Trump’s threats to acquire Greenland, a territory of Denmark.
“Annexing Greenland and threatening European countries doesn’t at all strengthen President Trump’s chances to get the award,” Aas said in an interview.
A proper response from an American president who is offered someone else’s Nobel prize would be to graciously decline, said Lewis Lukens, a senior official in the U.S. Embassy in London during Trump’s first term.
“If it were any other president, they’d say: ‘Thank you so much. That’s very kind of you, but this is an award that was given to you. Please don’t leave it here. It’s yours. I refuse to accept it,’” Lukens said. “But I can totally see Trump saying: ‘Thank you very much. I deserve it, and I’m going to keep it.’”
Newt Gingrich, the Republican former House speaker and author of a book called “Understanding Trump,” also expects Trump to accept the award if Machado offers it.
“I suspect she will offer it to him, and I suspect he’ll put it somewhere in the Oval Office,” Gingrich said in an interview. “It’s a Trump move.”
“Trump is a unique person who has enormous strengths and occasional moments when you wonder, ‘What’s going on?’” Gingrich added.
What Trump would do with the gift is another question. Would Machado’s award stay in the White House? Go to his presidential library, where the Qatari jet appears headed after his term ends?
President Theodore Roosevelt’s Nobel Peace Prize from 1906 now hangs in the Roosevelt Room, a few paces from the Oval Office. That would be a fitting location for Machado’s award, O’Brien said.
Said Gingrich: “I just watch with amazement to see what happens next.”